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Looking Ahead: What Does The Rise In Gold Prices Mean For Your Real Estate Business?

What does the rise in gold prices mean for your real estate business?

You're a real estate agent.  You've survived thus far in one of the most difficult periods in the real estate industry since the word REALTOR was trademarked back in 1950.  Many of your colleagues have left the industry because they couldn't or didn't foresee the need to pare back expenses and find ways to continue to sell houses.

You're a survivor, and would have reason to be proud of that fact if only you had time to reflect.  You don't, though, because this market eats up every second of your time, and you're scrambling to stay upright while the world you knew so well is shifting beneath your feet.

What does the rise in gold prices mean for your real estate business?

You don't have time to look at the commodities market.  You're in real estate, after all.  But that shift that's taking place requires your attention.  Step back for a moment.  Look at the bigger picture.

As the Federal Reserve prints more dollars, the value of those dollars declines.  Supply and demand, just like the price of the homes you're selling.  Increased supply of homes for sale (and the supply of bank owned homes continues to flood the market) means lower prices, and for the moment, interest rates are low too.  You might be tempted to think that your business has actually hit a sweet spot. Avoid that temptation.

What does the rise in gold prices mean for your real estate business?

It means your business is about to change dramatically yet again, and perhaps sooner rather than later.

Gold futures hit a record high yesterday, briefly touching $1,049.70 an ounce.  It's expected to go higher.  And here's the takeaway: the price of gold forecasts inflation.  It runs up before the inflation hits.  In 1980, after a four year runup in the price of gold to more than $873, per ounce, inflation hit an annualized rate of nearly 15%.  I remember it well, as I was a real estate developer at the time. 

That 80's market took me bankrupt at age 41.  One year prior, I had a net worth in real estate of $4 million, with debt of $1 million.  I wasn't prepared.

Here's a list of the things I'm doing, courtesy of CrisisTimes.com, to make sure my business survives this next twelve months:

JOIN ME!  We live in exciting times, and there's an abundance of opportunity.

___________________

I'm Mike in Tucson, your preferred Tucson, AZ Mortgage lender.
Mike Jones (Tucson Mortgage Company, LLC): Loan Officer in Tucson, Pima County, Arizona
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE
Call me
if I can help you or someone you know
with a purchase or refi mortgage.
(520) 349-9090

photo courtesy flickr /andrew in coins

Comment balloon 19 commentsMike Jones • October 07 2009 09:31AM

Comments

Wow you have been way up and down! And you still have one of the best attitude's around! Thanks for the list of sites too, have a good day my friend!

Posted by Russell Lewis, Broker,CLHMS,GRI (Realty Austin, Austin Texas Real Estate) almost 11 years ago

Russell,

Thanks for being the first to comment!  That BK is why I have such a positive attitude.  It was a life changer.

Mike in Tucson

Posted by Mike Jones, Mike Jones NMLS 223495 (SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) ) almost 11 years ago

Mike - Thanks for sharing your story, and your inspiration for us all. This is indeed a tough time in the real estate/mortgage industry. Even those who may have been "well prepared" are struggling! Off to check out those websites...

Posted by Karen Cooper, Helping Homeowners w/Home Loans in 27 US States (Karen Cooper | Sr Retail Loan Originator ! NMLS # 223305 | 360 Mortgage Group LLC Austin Texas) almost 11 years ago

Mike - Congratulations on being a survivor and learning from life's lessons.  Your post is so timely.  We all need to live as debt free as possible.  Inflation is coming like a thief in the night.  I too well remember the Carter days - HIGH inflation, wage and price freezes, gas lines, double digit mortgage rates and a sagging economy.  It took a long time to come out of that one - and this time it looks like things may get just as bad.  BUT, if we are prepared, we will all come out just fine.

Posted by Jane Penttinen, NMLS #222178 (V.I.P. Mortgage ) almost 11 years ago

Interesting take re gold, etc. I'm crazy about what I'm doing, living tiny, marketing, and happy I'm the age I am as the older I've gotten, the fewer belongings I want!! Thanks for a terrific read.

Posted by Susie Blackmon, Ocala, Horses, Western Wear, Horse Farms, Marketing almost 11 years ago

Thanks for the heads up, Mike! I will pay more attention to gold prices. I'm not looking forward to a return to high interest rates.

Cheers,

Robin

Posted by Robin Rogers, CRS, TRC, MRP - Real Estate Investment Adviser (Robin Rogers, Silverbridge Realty, San Antonio, Texas) almost 11 years ago

Mike, I too was in the real estate business in the late 1970's and early 1980's.  I remember mortgage interest rates at 14.5%, rampant foreclosures and bankrupcies by developers, and agents leaving the business.  Your advice and tips are right-on. 

Posted by Kate Wheeler, CCIM - Murphy NC Real Estate for Sale (Country Homes and Land Murphy NC Realtor ) almost 11 years ago

Mike I think you're right about this.  I remember when gold topped 500 and we sold some and did some land exchanging for some.  And now it's over 1000.  We're not over this crazy climate by any shot of the imagination - being prepared and smart and keeping it simple is a good idea.  That's clearly my plan going into 2010 and beyond several years.  I also intend to have a lot of business - I've been thru it before and came out fine - this time I'm smarter!  You too!!

Posted by Anna Banana Kruchten Arizona's Top Banana!, 602-380-4886 (HomeSmart Real Estate BR030809000) almost 11 years ago

Great advice we have been on our plan for two years and your list is most of our plan. Keep it simple is one of our major plans.

Posted by Terry & Bonnie Westbrook, Westbrook Realty - Grand Rapids Forest Hills MI Re (Westbrook Realty Broker-Owner) almost 11 years ago

Interesting topic, I thought "here we go" when I heard the central bank of Australia raised interest rates.  They have to go up some.

Excellent points about taking care of business.  We moved to a smaller office space and I just feel relieved.  Now we're busier than ever.

Posted by Wanda Thomas, Billings Montana Real Estate (Montana Homestead Brokers, Broker, CRS, GRI, SFR, RN) almost 11 years ago

Mike,

I liked your post so much I re-blogged it.  My husband came home tonight talking about gold prices and giving the same assessment that you gave, inflation.

Posted by Fran Gatti, Managing Principal Broker - RE/MAX Integrity (RE/MAX Integrity) almost 11 years ago

Mike, I remember the early 1980's.  We bought one of our first homes at 12.5% and that was considered a VERY good rate as it was bond money. 

I love your list.  As I have gotten older I have taken a more conservative view and have strived to do many of the items you talk about.

Posted by Marchel Peterson, Spring TX Real Estate E-Pro (Results Realty) almost 11 years ago

So now I am wishing I had bought gold... 

Off to check out that list...

Posted by Doreen McPherson, Phoenix Arizona Real Estate ~ (Homesmart ~ Scottsdale ~ Tempe) almost 11 years ago

Mike, I'm so agreeing with do what you love & get paid for it, I'm a very fortunate person indeed! Now off to check out the other links you provided!

Hey by the way Mike, I did buy the new camera and I forgot what model you had but I purchased the Lumnix DMC-FZ28. I played around with it on a recent trip to FL. I hope to read the manual soon, lol!

Posted by Cynthia Bartch almost 11 years ago

Cynthia,

I'm looking forward to seeing your work with the new camera!

Doreen,

When I was eight, Grandma taught me a rhyme: "If wishes were horses, then beggars would ride.  If wishes were fishes, then we'd have some fried."  LOL

Marchel,

That was a very good rate back then.  It'll be a very good rate once again if the congress keeps on it's present course.

Fran,

Thanks for the reblog!

Wanda,

Isn't it a good feeling to cut back on expenses and see the cash flow improve?!

Terry,

It's a good plan!

Anna Banana,

Yes we are!

Kate,

It's why we're still in business while the youngsters (many of them) have left.

Robin,

Troubles bring with them the power to overcome.

Susie,

You're doing the right thing!

Jane,

It's so good to see you're very busy again.  Did you lock up the office last night?

Karen,

But you're still standing!  Keep on keeping on!

Mike in Tucson

Posted by Mike Jones, Mike Jones NMLS 223495 (SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) ) almost 11 years ago

Hi Mike, This is a really good  heads up and I do think you are spot on here. We haven't really seen the vestiges of this as yet but I have no doubt that we should be watching for the signs , soon. It will be these higher rates though that will most likely bring the lenders back. Regrettably, too little too late.

Posted by William Johnson, Retired Real Estate Professional (Retired) almost 11 years ago

Mike, the key here is that you've learned from the past, which will help insulate you from the turbulence of the future.  The things you're doing are all spot on... sage advice my friend.

Posted by Jesse & Kathy Clifton, Retired (Jesse Clifton & Associates, REALTORS®) almost 11 years ago

Mike, I thought that your post was so valuable and interesting that I re-blogger it .  Thank you for sharing this information with us.

Posted by Gary Coles (International Referrals), Latin America Real Estate (Venture Realty International) almost 11 years ago

Came by way of Gary's re-blog.  Great post.  Good advice.

Posted by 1~Judi Barrett, BS Ed, Integrity Real Estate Services -IDABEL OK (Integrity Real Estate Services 118 SE AVE N, Idabel, OK 74745) almost 11 years ago

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